Foresight with Scenarios:

Much has been written about the scenario process and how it results in foresight. Since the 1960s to present day, there are many advocates of the scenario process. However, what happens if you are a participant? If it your first time as a participant, you are likely to be unfamiliar with the journey you are about to embark on. The journey is unpredictable with no clear outcome at the outset. In fact, even if you have experienced the scenario process previously the outcome will still be unpredictable. So, what does the scenario process look like from an inside perspective?

First, as a participant thinking about the future with the scenario process is very different from a typical strategic planning event. Such an event, on average, is a one- or two-day event with subsequent follow-up meetings. Strategic planning events usually have a (rolling) 12-month timescale and are based on managerial assumptions about desired targets and outcomes. Those targets and outcomes are the desired future, and actions are identified to achieve the desired future. The scenario process, by contrast, is based on individual and collective concerns about the future, with no clear outcomes.

Second, as a participant in the scenario process there is likely to be a degree of confusion at the outset. The confusion is two-fold. First, different individuals bring different ideas and concerns which need to be discussed, with discussions to converge on a focal point for the scenario project. Second, as the scenario process unfolds the journey and outcome will be unclear and therefore unsettling for participants.

Third, as a participant it is important to trust the scenario process. It is tried and tested. Avoid the desire to deviate and improvise. Follow process guidance, step-by-step, be creative and imaginative. As Herman Kahn noted, it is about ‘thinking about the unthinkable’.

Fourth, as a participant it is important to stay open and leave space for ideas to emerge. Explore and challenge ideas and allocate time to let ideas gather energy. It is important to avoid premature judgment, as the scenario process is about exploring key concerns, to gain new insights.

Fifth, as a participant it is important to be open and remain open throughout the process. It is important to recognise the limitations of past organisational experiences which place a boundary on current thinking.

Sixth, as a participant it is important to trust the other participants. Each participant has different experiences, different expertise and knowledge. It is important to listen carefully, as our experiences may limit what we hear and see as the interaction flows. It is important not prejudge ideas.

Seventh, as a participant it is important to be ready for surprise and novel thinking, as well as counter-intuitive ideas and thoughts. This may be discomforting as it challenges deeply held assumptions.

Eighth, as a participant it is important to understand Kees van der Heijden’s notion of ‘the art of strategic conversation’ for it is through language that we articulate and debate key concerns and ideas. It is also through conversations that we persuade other participants when we recognise something new and insightful for the first time.

Finally, as a participant it is important to understand that the past is not settled, it is open to interpretation and re-interpretation. Our understanding of the past is limited and with the passage of time and emergence of new experiences and ideas, we are able to re-define our understanding of the past in the present, which is at the heart of developing foresight.