Foresight with Scenarios:

Organisations, regardless of size or setting, are concerned with the future. What will the organisation meet in the future? What is driving the future? How does the organisation recognise events that reveal the unfolding future and develop readiness to be manage in whatever future emerges? Why is this important? The world is constantly changing, on occasions quite abruptly and unexpectedly, on other occasions more gradually. The constantly changing conditions affect the achievement of the organisation’s goals and objectives.

The recent 5^th Test match between England and India may provide help for organisations as they manage into the future. For India, their objective was to win and draw the test match series. For England, their objective was also win and win the series. The weather forecast was for conditions was good, dry and sunny, with the possibility of rain.

On day 1, Indian had two moments towards their goal and then they struggled.

On day 2, England were initially in control of the test, moving carefully towards their goal. Then surprisingly India took wickets quickly and it was a struggle for England to get a small lead.

On days 3 and 4, India started well, making progress to wards their goal. Suddenly they lost wickets, collapsed, and then fought back to end with a challenging lead. England had a bumpy state, then made progress towards their goal.

On day 5, with the target in sight – 21 runs to win with 3 wickets remaining, England collapsed, and India won the test match to draw the series.

Organisational foresight is about individuals developing an understanding of changing conditions and developing insights about how these changes would impact the organisation before they materialised. The ebb and flow of the test match highlights constant and unpredictable change (surrounding organisations) and the need to be permanently vigilant, and fleet of foot in the here-and-now. Furthermore, the ebb and flow of the world produces moments of stability, yet unpredictability and surprise can appear suddenly.

From a period of seeing success ahead, it can disappear in a moment. The ebbs and flows of the changing world highlight the fragility faced by organisations. Surprise can occur at any moment. Unpredictability is the norm and highlights that it is impossible to know in advance what will happen. However, if organisations develop foresight, they will better understand the changing world in the here-and-now. It is important to understand that – ‘the past is present in the present, and that the present is present in the past’.

Organisations need to harness the unpredictable nature of the changing world and build a disposition to be sensitive and attuned to the possibilities offered up by the changing world. For individual’s such a disposition embraces foresight as ‘wayfinding’ to help the organisation be successful in the future.

Whist organisational experiences may not be as intense as the 5^th test match, insights from cricket have much to offer organisations and those interested in foresight.